Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.63 – 151

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.7 ±11

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 7.22Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 140.15Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11132Rambotics, Inc.

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 45.26Rank 26Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.2 ±11.6

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 52.77Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6645Alloy Obsession

Season APEX 73Event APEX 24.91Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 73.32Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5908, 118, 11132

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5908, 118, 11132

Auto

27.7 19%

Teleop

78.6 53%

Endgame

42.1 28%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 7%

Blue · 5261, 6645, 9512

/ 100 compat

Projected

151 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5261, 6645, 9512

Auto

21.9 20%

Teleop

63.4 57%

Endgame

26.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 7%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score192.6pts

Blue projected score151pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 7%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.6
Score range: 133–211
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 102.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.7Season APEX266.2

27.7Auto21.9

78.6Teleop63.4

42.1Endgame26.7

48Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	26
teleop	112	104
endgame	41	53
foul	0	0
total	201	183

Result

Final score

201 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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