Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.28 – 57.05

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

94 – 78

Prediction missed · off by 29.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.2 ±11.7

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX -0.89Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 50.05Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 6.12Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.4 ±12.2

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 26.81Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 33.82Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6488RoboRams

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -3.58Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4587, 5414, 5070

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4587, 5414, 5070

Auto

18.2 26%

Teleop

42.9 60%

Endgame

9.9 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11277, 4328, 6488

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11277, 4328, 6488

Auto

17.4 35%

Teleop

12.3 25%

Endgame

20.3 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.3pts

Blue projected score57.1pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.8
Score range: 37–75
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 102.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.2Season APEX175.4

18.2Auto17.4

42.9Teleop12.3

9.9Endgame20.3

9Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	28
teleop	41	27
endgame	34	23
foul	0	0
total	94	78

Result

Final score

94 – 78

Prediction missed · off by 29.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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