Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.67 – 104.92

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 55.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.1 ±9.8

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 19.16Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 18.87Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 14.64Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.3 ±11.7

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 50.82Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10904The Circuit Sorcerers

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 11.39Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 42.71Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11242, 8576, 1255

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11242, 8576, 1255

Auto

30.4 50%

Teleop

22.1 36%

Endgame

8.1 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5261, 10904, 231

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5261, 10904, 231

Auto

30.2 24%

Teleop

63.7 52%

Endgame

29.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.7pts

Blue projected score104.9pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.2
Score range: 35–123
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 102.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.1Season APEX237.3

30.4Auto30.2

22.1Teleop63.7

8.1Endgame29.6

22Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	23
teleop	56	68
endgame	31	49
foul	0	0
total	128	140

Result

Final score

128 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 55.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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