Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.65 – 59.19

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164 ±11

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 19.98Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 54.57Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5726RHUMBOTZ

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 12.1Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137 ±14.9

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 51.3Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9521Humble Rumble

Season APEX 27Event APEX 4.69Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7115Red Lion Bots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 3.2Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7691, 8177, 5726

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7691, 8177, 5726

Auto

17.6 20%

Teleop

38.3 43%

Endgame

32.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10118, 9521, 7115

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10118, 9521, 7115

Auto

22.4 37%

Teleop

22.6 38%

Endgame

14.8 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.6pts

Blue projected score59.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.5
Score range: 41–105
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 102.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164Season APEX137

17.6Auto22.4

38.3Teleop22.6

32.5Endgame14.8

14Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	26
teleop	63	17
endgame	28	21
foul	0	0
total	107	64

Result

Final score

107 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 12.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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