Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.22 – 227.1

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.8 ±12.7

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 76.04Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 11.75Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 15.43Rank 24Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.5 ±11.1

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 64.9Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 134.78Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6645Alloy Obsession

Season APEX 73Event APEX 27.42Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9512, 5908, 2882

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9512, 5908, 2882

Auto

18.5 32%

Teleop

20.5 36%

Endgame

18.4 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8515, 624, 6645

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8515, 624, 6645

Auto

45.3 24%

Teleop

104.2 55%

Endgame

38.7 21%

Strengths

· 624 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.65 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.2pts

Blue projected score227.1pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.9
Score range: 85–245
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 101.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.8Season APEX375.5

18.5Auto45.3

20.5Teleop104.2

18.4Endgame38.7

40Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	37
teleop	44	111
endgame	14	72
foul	5	0
total	82	220

Result

Final score

82 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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