Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.91 – 32.17

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

61 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.4 ±11.6

5726RHUMBOTZ

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 19.92Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 20.84Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 34.15Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.8 ±14

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 9.6Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9521Humble Rumble

Season APEX 27Event APEX 2.17Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 20.4Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5726, 4587, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5726, 4587, 8576

Auto

20.9 25%

Teleop

48.8 59%

Endgame

12.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5908, 9521, 11242

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5908, 9521, 11242

Auto

27.1 86%

Teleop

-3.7 0%

Endgame

8.1 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.9pts

Blue projected score32.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.7
Score range: 11–96
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 107 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.4Season APEX237.8

20.9Auto27.1

48.8Teleop-3.7

12.9Endgame8.1

50Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	11
teleop	29	2
endgame	11	13
foul	0	20
total	61	46

Result

Final score

61 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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