Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.75 – 148.27

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 7.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 135.5 ±12.7

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 34.53Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10904The Circuit Sorcerers

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 9.38Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 10.84Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.7 ±10.5

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 75.28Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 19.87Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 53.12Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4328, 10904, 5908

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4328, 10904, 5908

Auto

19.9 39%

Teleop

8.8 17%

Endgame

22.3 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9512, 11242, 8177

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9512, 11242, 8177

Auto

32.0 28%

Teleop

50.8 44%

Endgame

32.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.86 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.8pts

Blue projected score148.3pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.5
Score range: 37–166
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 101.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

135.5Season APEX360.7

19.9Auto32

8.8Teleop50.8

22.3Endgame32.5

31Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	19
teleop	14	32
endgame	22	49
foul	5	45
total	67	145

Result

Final score

67 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 7.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree