Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.77 – 111.64

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 32

Prediction missed · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.8 ±12.2

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 16.58Rank 24Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 63.37Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 20.82Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.3 ±11.7

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 26.02Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11132Rambotics, Inc.

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 57.28Rank 26Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 28.34Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2882, 8515, 11178

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2882, 8515, 11178

Auto

27.2 40%

Teleop

25.4 37%

Endgame

15.5 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8576, 11132, 7691

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8576, 11132, 7691

Auto

17.8 28%

Teleop

38.0 60%

Endgame

7.4 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.8pts

Blue projected score111.6pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.9
Score range: 83–130
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 125 vs event baseline 101.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.8Season APEX272.3

27.2Auto17.8

25.4Teleop38

15.5Endgame7.4

69Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	11
teleop	37	16
endgame	39	5
foul	0	0
total	93	32

Result

Final score

93 – 32

Prediction missed · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree