Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.27 – 75.04

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.9 ±11.7

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 81.21Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 145.04Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5923WildC.A.T.S.

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 1.02Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.9 ±11

5726RHUMBOTZ

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 22.06Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 18.79Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 34.19Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9512, 624, 5923

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9512, 624, 5923

Auto

40.8 25%

Teleop

82.0 50%

Endgame

39.8 24%

Strengths

· 624 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5726, 1255, 11277

/ 100 compat

Projected

75 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5726, 1255, 11277

Auto

23.3 29%

Teleop

37.9 47%

Endgame

20.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score227.3pts

Blue projected score75pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 152.2
Score range: 57–245
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 101.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324.9Season APEX184.9

40.8Auto23.3

82Teleop37.9

39.8Endgame20.2

40Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	18
teleop	125	8
endgame	12	3
foul	0	0
total	183	29

Result

Final score

183 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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