Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

183.59 – 198.84

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.3 ±9

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 37.73Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 2.21Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 143.65Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.7 ±11.2

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 149.12Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 10.42Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 39.3Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8576, 8818, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8576, 8818, 118

Auto

26.2 15%

Teleop

103.3 59%

Endgame

45.8 26%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 624, 5070, 11277

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 624, 5070, 11277

Auto

42.1 20%

Teleop

116.4 56%

Endgame

48.0 23%

Strengths

· 624 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score183.6pts

Blue projected score198.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.2
Score range: 166–217
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 100.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.3Season APEX299.7

26.2Auto42.1

103.3Teleop116.4

45.8Endgame48

41Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	38
teleop	90	74
endgame	29	42
foul	0	0
total	158	154

Result

Final score

158 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 35.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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