Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.73 – 250.69

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.7 ±11

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 38.69Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6645Alloy Obsession

Season APEX 73Event APEX 26.74Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 23.3Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.6 ±9.8

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 138.7Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 57.44Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 54.55Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11277, 6645, 11178

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11277, 6645, 11178

Auto

22.1 26%

Teleop

37.5 44%

Endgame

25.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 624, 5261, 8177

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 624, 5261, 8177

Auto

45.3 18%

Teleop

136.0 54%

Endgame

69.4 28%

Strengths

· 624 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.7pts

Blue projected score250.7pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -162
Score range: 68–272
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.7Season APEX346.6

22.1Auto45.3

37.5Teleop136

25.3Endgame69.4

22Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	42
teleop	24	174
endgame	7	66
foul	15	0
total	60	282

Result

Final score

60 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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