Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

7.18 – 51.94

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 100.2 ±15.8

5923WildC.A.T.S.

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -1.07Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 9.84Rank 24Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9521Humble Rumble

Season APEX 27Event APEX -1.59Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147.8 ±12.2

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 40.14Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10904The Circuit Sorcerers

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX -2.73Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5726RHUMBOTZ

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 14.53Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5923, 2882, 9521

/ 100 compat

Projected

7.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5923, 2882, 9521

Auto

14.8 100%

Teleop

-15.7 0%

Endgame

9.3 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8177, 10904, 5726

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8177, 10904, 5726

Auto

17.6 27%

Teleop

24.6 38%

Endgame

22.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score7.2pts

Blue projected score51.9pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.8
Score range: -11–70
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 100.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

100.2Season APEX147.8

14.8Auto17.6

-15.7Teleop24.6

9.3Endgame22.7

48Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	25
teleop	14	68
endgame	6	38
foul	0	0
total	32	131

Result

Final score

32 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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