Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.16 – 109.93

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 24

Prediction missed · off by 69.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.8 ±11

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 10.91Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 5.98Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 39.27Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241 ±12.7

6488RoboRams

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -6.18Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 84.75Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6645Alloy Obsession

Season APEX 73Event APEX 31.36Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1255, 5908, 231

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1255, 5908, 231

Auto

26.2 38%

Teleop

31.6 46%

Endgame

11.0 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 4%

Blue · 6488, 8515, 6645

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6488, 8515, 6645

Auto

23.2 40%

Teleop

32.0 55%

Endgame

2.8 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 4%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.2pts

Blue projected score109.9pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 4%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.8
Score range: 38–128
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 101.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.8Season APEX241

26.2Auto23.2

31.6Teleop32

11Endgame2.8

54Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	12
teleop	59	5
endgame	18	7
foul	0	0
total	109	24

Result

Final score

109 – 24

Prediction missed · off by 69.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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