Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.77 – 116.49

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 75.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.8 ±10.5

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 36.29Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX -7.68Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 16.16Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430.2 ±11.2

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 25.2Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11132Rambotics, Inc.

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 66.43Rank 26Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 24.86Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5414, 2585, 7691

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5414, 2585, 7691

Auto

17.6 18%

Teleop

46.5 47%

Endgame

34.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11242, 11132, 11178

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11242, 11132, 11178

Auto

19.7 51%

Teleop

9.3 24%

Endgame

9.4 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.8pts

Blue projected score116.5pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.7
Score range: 27–134
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 101.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.8Season APEX430.2

17.6Auto19.7

46.5Teleop9.3

34.2Endgame9.4

57Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	31
teleop	87	21
endgame	29	10
foul	0	0
total	142	62

Result

Final score

142 – 62

Prediction missed · off by 75.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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