Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.01 – 126.04

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.7 ±12.2

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 28.96Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 55.58Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7115Red Lion Bots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX -2.53Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.9 ±11.6

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 85.64Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX -9.87Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 50.27Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4328, 5261, 7115

/ 100 compat

Projected

82 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4328, 5261, 7115

Auto

22.1 23%

Teleop

44.6 46%

Endgame

30.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9512, 4587, 10118

/ 100 compat

Projected

126 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9512, 4587, 10118

Auto

23.3 30%

Teleop

37.3 48%

Endgame

17.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82pts

Blue projected score126pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44
Score range: 64–144
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 101.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.7Season APEX213.9

22.1Auto23.3

44.6Teleop37.3

30.9Endgame17.6

25Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	23
teleop	39	42
endgame	36	22
foul	5	0
total	103	87

Result

Final score

103 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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