Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.31 – 119.64

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.7 ±11.7

7115Red Lion Bots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX -5Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 24.11Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 19.2Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.9 ±12.2

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 5.09Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 34.3Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 80.25Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7115, 8177, 11178

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7115, 8177, 11178

Auto

14.3 24%

Teleop

29.7 51%

Endgame

14.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5070, 231, 9512

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5070, 231, 9512

Auto

21.3 23%

Teleop

52.1 56%

Endgame

19.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38.3pts

Blue projected score119.6pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.3
Score range: 19–139
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 102.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.7Season APEX253.9

14.3Auto21.3

29.7Teleop52.1

14.7Endgame19.6

79Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	23
teleop	22	89
endgame	29	31
foul	5	5
total	77	148

Result

Final score

77 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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