Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

241.58 – 17.25

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.9 ±9.8

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 49.4Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 36.79Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 155.39Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.9 ±12.1

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 12.31Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6645Alloy Obsession

Season APEX 73Event APEX 26.71Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX -21.77Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5261, 10118, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5261, 10118, 624

Auto

47.2 23%

Teleop

115.4 55%

Endgame

47.1 22%

Strengths

· 624 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5908, 6645, 2585

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.3 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5908, 6645, 2585

Auto

6.5 17%

Teleop

15.6 41%

Endgame

16.0 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score241.6pts

Blue projected score17.3pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 224.3
Score range: -1–260
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 100.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.9Season APEX174.9

47.2Auto6.5

115.4Teleop15.6

47.1Endgame16

17Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	26
teleop	171	29
endgame	76	43
foul	0	0
total	299	98

Result

Final score

299 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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