Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.97 – 36.9

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

122 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.1 ±11.7

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 160.76Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7115Red Lion Bots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 19.36Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5923WildC.A.T.S.

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 25.85Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.5 ±10.7

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 0.46Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 44.96Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10904The Circuit Sorcerers

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX -8.52Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 118, 7115, 5923

/ 100 compat

Projected

206 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 118, 7115, 5923

Auto

24.3 14%

Teleop

99.6 56%

Endgame

52.4 30%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 11242, 5414, 10904

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11242, 5414, 10904

Auto

29.2 37%

Teleop

33.3 42%

Endgame

17.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206pts

Blue projected score36.9pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.1
Score range: 19–224
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 102.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.1Season APEX413.5

24.3Auto29.2

99.6Teleop33.3

52.4Endgame17

126Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	29
teleop	57	23
endgame	39	15
foul	0	0
total	122	67

Result

Final score

122 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 57 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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