Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.08 – 140.58

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 87.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276.4 ±11

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 65.25Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 81.09Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 44.74Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.7 ±12.2

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 49.22Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 10.43Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11132Rambotics, Inc.

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 80.93Rank 26Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 231, 9512, 11277

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 231, 9512, 11277

Auto

29.7 26%

Teleop

51.8 45%

Endgame

34.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8177, 4587, 11132

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8177, 4587, 11132

Auto

7.6 9%

Teleop

53.4 62%

Endgame

24.7 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.1pts

Blue projected score140.6pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.5
Score range: 122–210
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 103.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276.4Season APEX171.7

29.7Auto7.6

51.8Teleop53.4

34.3Endgame24.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	15
teleop	79	3
endgame	18	10
foul	0	5
total	123	33

Result

Final score

123 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 87.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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