Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

37.54 – 8.19

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 120.9 ±12.2

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 40.84Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5726RHUMBOTZ

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 16.93Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -20.23Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.1 ±11

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 11.71Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX -4.44Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 0.92Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10118, 5726, 5070

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10118, 5726, 5070

Auto

29.0 40%

Teleop

27.6 38%

Endgame

15.3 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7691, 8818, 5908

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7691, 8818, 5908

Auto

-0.3 2%

Teleop

-22.9 100%

Endgame

4.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score37.5pts

Blue projected score8.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.4
Score range: -11–57
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 118 vs event baseline 105.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

120.9Season APEX158.1

29Auto-0.3

27.6Teleop-22.9

15.3Endgame4.5

45Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	14
teleop	49	18
endgame	14	7
foul	0	0
total	79	39

Result

Final score

79 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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