Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.85 – 37.83

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 40 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359 ±11.1

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX -31.9Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 13.39Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 115.36Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.7 ±12.2

7115Red Lion Bots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 4.49Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 13.26Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6645Alloy Obsession

Season APEX 73Event APEX 20.08Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2585, 11242, 8515

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2585, 11242, 8515

Auto

22.8 35%

Teleop

29.1 45%

Endgame

12.8 20%

Strengths

· 8515 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7115, 8576, 6645

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7115, 8576, 6645

Auto

14.8 67%

Teleop

16.7 76%

Endgame

-9.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.9pts

Blue projected score37.8pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59
Score range: 19–116
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 106.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359Season APEX276.7

22.8Auto14.8

29.1Teleop16.7

12.8Endgame-9.5

57Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	22
teleop	29	46
endgame	10	21
foul	0	0
total	68	89

Result

Final score

68 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 40 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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