Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.71 – 168.87

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 79.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338 ±11

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 11.53Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 136.77Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX -24.59Rank 24Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 152.4 ±11.7

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 72.77Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5923WildC.A.T.S.

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 26.71Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 69.39Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4587, 118, 2882

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4587, 118, 2882

Auto

31.5 19%

Teleop

84.7 51%

Endgame

49.1 30%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 11277, 5923, 8177

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11277, 5923, 8177

Auto

15.4 10%

Teleop

86.9 58%

Endgame

46.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.7pts

Blue projected score168.9pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.2
Score range: 105–188
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 103.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338Season APEX152.4

31.5Auto15.4

84.7Teleop86.9

49.1Endgame46.3

149Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	20
teleop	109	36
endgame	61	27
foul	5	0
total	197	83

Result

Final score

197 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 79.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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