Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.9 – 138.17

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.1 ±10.5

5726RHUMBOTZ

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX -3.89Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 84.17Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 14.62Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227 ±12.2

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX -21.63Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 41.17Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11132Rambotics, Inc.

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 118.63Rank 26Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5726, 5261, 11242

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5726, 5261, 11242

Auto

30.0 32%

Teleop

33.1 35%

Endgame

32.1 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2585, 231, 11132

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2585, 231, 11132

Auto

5.7 15%

Teleop

28.3 75%

Endgame

3.5 9%

Strengths

· 11132 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.9pts

Blue projected score138.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.3
Score range: 76–157
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 103.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.1Season APEX227

30Auto5.7

33.1Teleop28.3

32.1Endgame3.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	17
teleop	48	48
endgame	24	30
foul	0	0
total	109	95

Result

Final score

109 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 28.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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