Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.41 – 88.16

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 22.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.5 ±11.2

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 50.57Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 39.21Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5923WildC.A.T.S.

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -3.37Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.3 ±12.7

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 16.42Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 74.07Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7115Red Lion Bots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX -2.33Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5414, 1255, 5923

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5414, 1255, 5923

Auto

24.7 26%

Teleop

54.5 57%

Endgame

16.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2585, 9512, 7115

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2585, 9512, 7115

Auto

15.8 24%

Teleop

30.7 46%

Endgame

19.9 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.4pts

Blue projected score88.2pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.7
Score range: 65–109
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 116.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.5Season APEX237.3

24.7Auto15.8

54.5Teleop30.7

16.4Endgame19.9

36Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	8
teleop	40	21
endgame	19	19
foul	0	0
total	81	48

Result

Final score

81 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 22.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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