Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

247.9 – 184.88

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 175

Prediction missed · off by 82.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.1 ±12.7

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 139.16Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10904The Circuit Sorcerers

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX -15.3Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 124.04Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.4 ±13.5

9521Humble Rumble

Season APEX 27Event APEX 48.35Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 31.41Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 105.12Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8515, 10904, 9512

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8515, 10904, 9512

Auto

9.5 18%

Teleop

34.1 64%

Endgame

9.9 19%

Strengths

· 8515 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9521, 8576, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9521, 8576, 624

Auto

35.1 26%

Teleop

78.8 59%

Endgame

20.4 15%

Strengths

· 624 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score247.9pts

Blue projected score184.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63
Score range: 167–266
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 101.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.1Season APEX370.4

9.5Auto35.1

34.1Teleop78.8

9.9Endgame20.4

24Consistency157

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	44
teleop	29	89
endgame	23	37
foul	0	5
total	92	175

Result

Final score

92 – 175

Prediction missed · off by 82.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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