Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 87.47

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

57 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.6 ±12.7

6645Alloy Obsession

Season APEX 73Event APEX -3.11Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -54.06Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 36.75Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 136.7 ±12.2

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 34.77Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5923WildC.A.T.S.

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 28.55Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 24.15Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6645, 5070, 4328

/ 100 compat

Projected

-20.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6645, 5070, 4328

Auto

17.2 29%

Teleop

23.1 39%

Endgame

18.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7691, 5923, 4587

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7691, 5923, 4587

Auto

7.2 20%

Teleop

15.1 42%

Endgame

13.7 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-20.4pts

Blue projected score87.5pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.5
Score range: -19–106
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 87 vs event baseline 105.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.6Season APEX136.7

17.2Auto7.2

23.1Teleop15.1

18.7Endgame13.7

77Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	11
teleop	16	4
endgame	22	15
foul	0	0
total	57	30

Result

Final score

57 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 57.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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