Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.03 – 121.75

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 53.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193 ±11.7

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -72.29Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 32.76Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 75.56Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±9.9

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 93.06Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX -2.81Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 31.5Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5070, 7691, 5261

/ 100 compat

Projected

36 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5070, 7691, 5261

Auto

26.2 19%

Teleop

88.8 64%

Endgame

24.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 624, 11242, 4328

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 624, 11242, 4328

Auto

14.7 10%

Teleop

86.9 61%

Endgame

40.4 28%

Strengths

· 624 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36pts

Blue projected score121.8pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.7
Score range: 19–139
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 96.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193Season APEX426.3

26.2Auto14.7

88.8Teleop86.9

24.1Endgame40.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	58
teleop	24	77
endgame	29	61
foul	0	0
total	68	196

Result

Final score

68 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 53.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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