Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.18 – 93.21

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 65 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239 ±11

6645Alloy Obsession

Season APEX 73Event APEX 11.92Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 53.65Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 79.61Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321 ±11

5726RHUMBOTZ

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 20.57Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6488RoboRams

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -19.5Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 92.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6645, 1255, 8177

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6645, 1255, 8177

Auto

29.4 21%

Teleop

85.9 60%

Endgame

26.8 19%

Strengths

· 8177 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5726, 6488, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5726, 6488, 118

Auto

25.0 27%

Teleop

46.9 51%

Endgame

20.6 22%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score145.2pts

Blue projected score93.2pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52
Score range: 79–159
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 79.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239Season APEX321

29.4Auto25

85.9Teleop46.9

26.8Endgame20.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	33
teleop	56	73
endgame	20	63
foul	0	5
total	96	174

Result

Final score

96 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 65 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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