Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.74 – 58.05

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.3 ±11.7

10904The Circuit Sorcerers

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX -6.77Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 16.94Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 80.57Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126 ±14.9

9521Humble Rumble

Season APEX 27Event APEX 12.54Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 33.04Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 12.47Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10904, 11277, 5261

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10904, 11277, 5261

Auto

7.6 9%

Teleop

53.4 64%

Endgame

22.9 27%

Strengths

· 5261 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9521, 5070, 8818

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9521, 5070, 8818

Auto

7.1 14%

Teleop

36.0 71%

Endgame

7.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.7pts

Blue projected score58.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.7
Score range: 42–107
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 87.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.3Season APEX126

7.6Auto7.1

53.4Teleop36

22.9Endgame7.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	11
teleop	41	4
endgame	32	5
foul	0	0
total	101	20

Result

Final score

101 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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