Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.93 – 129.01

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

7 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.6 ±12.8

10904The Circuit Sorcerers

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 14.16Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 48.89Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6488RoboRams

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -8.12Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203 ±13.3

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 7.74Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 81.32Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11132Rambotics, Inc.

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 39.95Rank 26Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10904, 10118, 6488

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10904, 10118, 6488

Auto

23.9 39%

Teleop

20.8 34%

Endgame

16.0 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5070, 8515, 11132

/ 100 compat

Projected

129 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5070, 8515, 11132

Auto

18.2 24%

Teleop

40.5 53%

Endgame

17.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.9pts

Blue projected score129pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.1
Score range: 34–150
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 116.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.6Season APEX203

23.9Auto18.2

20.8Teleop40.5

16Endgame17.9

12Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	20
teleop	3	95
endgame	1	4
foul	0	0
total	7	119

Result

Final score

7 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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