Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

316.95 – 139.23

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

379 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 43.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.4 ±8.4

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 36.45Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 144.08Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 136.42Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.1 ±11.6

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 20.05Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 80.35Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 38.83Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11277, 118, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

317 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11277, 118, 624

Auto

58.1 19%

Teleop

170.5 56%

Endgame

78.4 26%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4587, 8515, 1255

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4587, 8515, 1255

Auto

26.0 21%

Teleop

66.2 54%

Endgame

30.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score317pts

Blue projected score139.2pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 177.7
Score range: 118–338
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 543 vs event baseline 114.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.4Season APEX252.1

58.1Auto26

170.5Teleop66.2

78.4Endgame30

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	32
teleop	166	74
endgame	95	53
foul	55	5
total	379	164

Result

Final score

379 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 43.4 pts

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