Texas Robotics Invitational Girls Drive Tournament

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.36 – 160.29

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

197 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 95.7 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 632.7 ±9.3

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX -12.91Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 28.18Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 41.09Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 464.1 ±11.9

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 53.43Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 53.43Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 92

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 53.43Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1296, 3847, 7492

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.4 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1296, 3847, 7492

Auto

10.2 18%

Teleop

32.4 57%

Endgame

13.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5427, 4336, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.3 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5427, 4336, 9140

Auto

51.4 32%

Teleop

57.4 36%

Endgame

51.4 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score56.4pts

Blue projected score160.3pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample34alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 84%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -103.9
Score range: 22–194
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 189.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

632.7Season APEX464.1

10.2Auto51.4

32.4Teleop57.4

13.8Endgame51.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	65
teleop	87	89
endgame	45	57
foul	0	0
total	197	211

Result

Final score

197 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 95.7 pts