Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
155.13 – 275.64
18%82%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
157 – 81
Prediction missed · off by 98.3 points
Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.2 ±11
Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 51.71Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 51.71Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 48Event APEX 51.71Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 68.91Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 39Event APEX 68.91Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180Event APEX 137.82Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6357, 324, 4587
53
/ 100 compatProjected
155.1 pts
~1.2 RP (offseason)
Teams: 6357, 324, 4587
Auto
17.1 11%
Teleop
109.7 71%
Endgame
28.3 18%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 84%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7691, 5503, 5414
86
/ 100 compatProjected
275.6 pts
~2.4 RP (offseason)
Teams: 7691, 5503, 5414
Auto
67.6 25%
Teleop
147.6 54%
Endgame
60.4 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 84%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.43
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setOffseason
Red projected score155.1pts
Blue projected score275.6pts
Red win probability18%
Event bonus sample34alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 84%, blue 70%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 8%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -120.5
- Score range
- 119–312
- Upset likelihood
- 18%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
266.2Season APEX288.6
17.1Auto67.6
109.7Teleop147.6
28.3Endgame60.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 46 | 14 |
| teleop | 83 | 33 |
| endgame | 28 | 34 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 157 | 81 |
Result
Final score
157 – 81
Prediction missed · off by 98.3 pts