Playoff · Playoff Match 15 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
91.47 – 282.63
8%92%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
168 – 359
Prediction correct · off by 76.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 482.2 ±9.9
Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 63.38Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 15.38Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 12.71Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.1 ±9.3
Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 94.21Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 94.21Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 94.21Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 624, 8515, 5829
50
/ 100 compatProjected
91.5 pts
~0.7 RP (offseason)
Teams: 624, 8515, 5829
Auto
21.9 24%
Teleop
44.3 48%
Endgame
25.3 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8044, 7312, 127
84
/ 100 compatProjected
282.6 pts
~2.7 RP (offseason)
Teams: 8044, 7312, 127
Auto
75.8 27%
Teleop
174.6 63%
Endgame
27.5 10%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.73
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setOffseason
Red projected score91.5pts
Blue projected score282.6pts
Red win probability8%
Event bonus sample34alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 86%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -191.2
- Score range
- 55–319
- Upset likelihood
- 8%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
482.2Season APEX577.1
21.9Auto75.8
44.3Teleop174.6
25.3Endgame27.5
0Consistency198
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 46 | 102 |
| teleop | 66 | 230 |
| endgame | 56 | 27 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 168 | 359 |
Result
Final score
168 – 359
Prediction correct · off by 76.5 pts