Texas Robotics Invitational Girls Drive Tournament

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.74 – 183.69

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

401 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 118.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.3 ±9.8

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 207.02Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 8.36Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 8.36Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 464.1 ±11.9

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 61.23Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 61.23Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 92

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 61.23Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10340, 5503, 7691

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.7 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10340, 5503, 7691

Auto

53.3 24%

Teleop

117.1 52%

Endgame

53.3 24%

Strengths

· 10340 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5427, 4336, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.7 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5427, 4336, 9140

Auto

57.7 31%

Teleop

72.0 39%

Endgame

54.0 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score223.7pts

Blue projected score183.7pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample34alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 84%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.1
Score range: 150–258
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 644 vs event baseline 190.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.3Season APEX464.1

53.3Auto57.7

117.1Teleop72

53.3Endgame54

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	44
teleop	241	104
endgame	64	95
foul	0	0
total	401	243

Result

Final score

401 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 118.3 pts