Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
156 – 93.86
68%32%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
209 – 98
Prediction correct · off by 28.6 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.2 ±11
Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 52Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 52Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 48Event APEX 52Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 30.84Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 112Event APEX -21.82Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 84.84Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6357, 324, 4587
58
/ 100 compatProjected
156 pts
~2.3 RP (offseason)
Teams: 6357, 324, 4587
Auto
30.5 20%
Teleop
97.4 62%
Endgame
28.1 18%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 84%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1296, 4639, 7492
51
/ 100 compatProjected
93.9 pts
~1.1 RP (offseason)
Teams: 1296, 4639, 7492
Auto
24.8 26%
Teleop
46.9 50%
Endgame
22.1 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 84%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.15
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setOffseason
Red projected score156pts
Blue projected score93.9pts
Red win probability68%
Event bonus sample34alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 84%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 62.1
- Score range
- 59–191
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
266.2Season APEX499.6
30.5Auto24.8
97.4Teleop46.9
28.1Endgame22.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 34 | 11 |
| teleop | 135 | 52 |
| endgame | 25 | 35 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 209 | 98 |
Result
Final score
209 – 98
Prediction correct · off by 28.6 pts