Texas Robotics Invitational Girls Drive Tournament

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.36 – 74.9

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434 ±10.5

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 24.42Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 16.18Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX -8.24Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.5 ±7.1

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 44.06Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX -6.61Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 37.45Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1477, 8576, 2585

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.4 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1477, 8576, 2585

Auto

12.0 37%

Teleop

18.6 57%

Endgame

1.8 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 624, 5829, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.9 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 624, 5829, NaN

Auto

17.8 24%

Teleop

32.4 43%

Endgame

24.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score32.4pts

Blue projected score74.9pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample34alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.5
Score range: -5–112
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 204.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434Season APEX374.5

12Auto17.8

18.6Teleop32.4

1.8Endgame24.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	33
teleop	7	77
endgame	0	27
foul	0	0
total	29	137

Result

Final score

29 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 pts