Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
310.62 – 254.31
67%33%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
306 – 344
Prediction missed · off by 47.2 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 508 ±9.3
Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 103.54Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 103.54Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 103.54Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.1 ±9.3
Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 84.77Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 84.77Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 84.77Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10014, 8370, 2881
88
/ 100 compatProjected
310.6 pts
~2.2 RP (offseason)
Teams: 10014, 8370, 2881
Auto
67.4 22%
Teleop
180.9 58%
Endgame
62.3 20%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 84%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8044, 7312, 127
78
/ 100 compatProjected
254.3 pts
~1.6 RP (offseason)
Teams: 8044, 7312, 127
Auto
72.9 29%
Teleop
148.6 60%
Endgame
25.9 10%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 84%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.56
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setOffseason
Red projected score310.6pts
Blue projected score254.3pts
Red win probability67%
Event bonus sample34alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 84%, blue 86%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 56.3
- Score range
- 220–345
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
508Season APEX577.1
67.4Auto72.9
180.9Teleop148.6
62.3Endgame25.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 60 | 82 |
| teleop | 176 | 231 |
| endgame | 70 | 31 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 306 | 344 |
Result
Final score
306 – 344
Prediction missed · off by 47.2 pts