Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

324.55 – 255.19

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

410 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 622.3 ±9.3

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 112.89Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 127.56Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 84.1Rank 35Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480.9 ±9.3

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 55.98Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 69.7Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 129.51Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1296, 2582, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.5 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1296, 2582, 8576

Auto

61.3 19%

Teleop

198.9 63%

Endgame

57.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5414, 1477, 4192

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.2 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5414, 1477, 4192

Auto

47.8 20%

Teleop

121.5 51%

Endgame

66.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score324.5pts

Blue projected score255.2pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.4
Score range: 205–375
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 688 vs event baseline 275.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

622.3Season APEX480.9

61.3Auto47.8

198.9Teleop121.5

57.9Endgame66.9

78Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	57
teleop	283	178
endgame	43	43
foul	15	0
total	410	278

Result

Final score

410 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 pts