Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

421.5 – 358.03

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

538 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 688.2 ±9.3

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 39.94Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 152.57Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 228.99Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 593.4 ±8.4

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 139.85Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 93.17Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 125.01Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4639, 2881, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.5 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4639, 2881, 8044

Auto

94.2 23%

Teleop

232.4 57%

Endgame

84.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3847, 6377, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

358 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3847, 6377, 118

Auto

69.6 20%

Teleop

190.5 54%

Endgame

90.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score421.5pts

Blue projected score358pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.5
Score range: 309–471
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 902 vs event baseline 272.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

688.2Season APEX593.4

94.2Auto69.6

232.4Teleop190.5

84Endgame90.8

39Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	92
teleop	291	205
endgame	161	52
foul	0	15
total	538	364

Result

Final score

538 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 pts