Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

611.45 – 337.13

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

578 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 769.1 ±9.3

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 304.13Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 53.85Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 253.47Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602.1 ±10.7

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 120.03Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 133.9Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 83.2Rank 26Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9128, 2587, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

611.5 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9128, 2587, 10340

Auto

127.4 22%

Teleop

360.9 61%

Endgame

101.8 17%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1296, 2582, 3616

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.1 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1296, 2582, 3616

Auto

58.8 18%

Teleop

193.8 59%

Endgame

76.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.72 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score611.5pts

Blue projected score337.1pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 274.3
Score range: 288–660
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 837 vs event baseline 270.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

769.1Season APEX602.1

127.4Auto58.8

360.9Teleop193.8

101.8Endgame76.1

47Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	67
teleop	394	155
endgame	90	37
foul	0	0
total	578	259

Result

Final score

578 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 pts