Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

232.4 – 280.05

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 350

Prediction missed · off by 98.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.9 ±9.3

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 48Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 62.07Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 122.33Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 573.4 ±10.7

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 137.77Rank 24Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 85.4Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 56.88Rank 27Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5414, 1477, 4192

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.4 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5414, 1477, 4192

Auto

47.3 22%

Teleop

114.4 52%

Endgame

57.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9140, 10014, 456

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.1 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9140, 10014, 456

Auto

52.0 19%

Teleop

128.5 47%

Endgame

91.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.49 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score232.4pts

Blue projected score280.1pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.7
Score range: 184–328
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 709 vs event baseline 269.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480.9Season APEX573.4

47.3Auto52

114.4Teleop128.5

57.8Endgame91.8

34Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	73
teleop	154	191
endgame	109	86
foul	45	0
total	359	350

Result

Final score

359 – 350

Prediction missed · off by 98.3 pts