Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

258 – 287.45

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 238

Prediction missed · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.6 ±11

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 140.93Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 69.04Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 48.03Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.7 ±9.3

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 66.19Rank 32Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 80.63Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 140.63Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7312, 8515, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

258 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7312, 8515, 5427

Auto

40.6 16%

Teleop

162.8 63%

Endgame

56.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 624, 5829, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.5 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 624, 5829, 9418

Auto

33.8 12%

Teleop

176.9 62%

Endgame

76.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.63 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score258pts

Blue projected score287.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.4
Score range: 210–335
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 520 vs event baseline 269.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.6Season APEX488.7

40.6Auto33.8

162.8Teleop176.9

56.1Endgame76.5

95Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	34
teleop	215	125
endgame	12	49
foul	0	30
total	282	238

Result

Final score

282 – 238

Prediction missed · off by 36.7 pts