Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

366.46 – 273.18

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

335 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.4 ±8.4

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 142.93Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 93.71Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 129.82Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 573.4 ±10.7

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 134.92Rank 24Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 82.99Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 55.27Rank 27Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3847, 6377, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.5 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3847, 6377, 118

Auto

63.3 18%

Teleop

198.5 56%

Endgame

94.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9140, 10014, 456

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.2 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9140, 10014, 456

Auto

45.2 17%

Teleop

144.9 53%

Endgame

81.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score366.5pts

Blue projected score273.2pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.3
Score range: 225–414
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 633 vs event baseline 268.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593.4Season APEX573.4

63.3Auto45.2

198.5Teleop144.9

94.5Endgame81.9

31Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	75
teleop	168	75
endgame	78	118
foul	0	30
total	335	298

Result

Final score

335 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 pts