Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

391.89 – 286.25

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

490 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 163.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 688.2 ±9.3

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 28.93Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 142.65Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 220.31Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480.9 ±9.3

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 65.26Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 80.22Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 140.77Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4639, 2881, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.9 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4639, 2881, 8044

Auto

94.6 24%

Teleop

225.3 58%

Endgame

71.5 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5414, 1477, 4192

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.3 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5414, 1477, 4192

Auto

53.2 20%

Teleop

140.8 52%

Endgame

74.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score391.9pts

Blue projected score286.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.6
Score range: 238–440
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 547 vs event baseline 268.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

688.2Season APEX480.9

94.6Auto53.2

225.3Teleop140.8

71.5Endgame74.6

69Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	28
teleop	248	28
endgame	111	1
foul	40	0
total	490	57

Result

Final score

490 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 163.7 pts