Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

303.59 – 307.43

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

438 – 234

Prediction missed · off by 103.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 622.3 ±9.3

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 109.32Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 121.3Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 72.97Rank 35Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.7 ±9.3

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 71.14Rank 32Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 85.91Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 150.38Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1296, 2582, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.6 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1296, 2582, 8576

Auto

59.5 20%

Teleop

178.2 61%

Endgame

54.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 624, 5829, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.4 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 624, 5829, 9418

Auto

36.8 12%

Teleop

180.2 59%

Endgame

89.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score303.6pts

Blue projected score307.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.8
Score range: 256–355
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 672 vs event baseline 267.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

622.3Season APEX488.7

59.5Auto36.8

178.2Teleop180.2

54Endgame89

80Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	29
teleop	280	161
endgame	94	44
foul	0	0
total	438	234

Result

Final score

438 – 234

Prediction missed · off by 103.9 pts