Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

623.88 – 269.37

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

587 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 769.1 ±9.3

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 308.6Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 58.93Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 256.35Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.6 ±11

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 142.75Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 72.68Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 53.94Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9128, 2587, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

623.9 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9128, 2587, 10340

Auto

122.3 20%

Teleop

368.0 60%

Endgame

120.2 20%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7312, 8515, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.4 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7312, 8515, 5427

Auto

47.5 17%

Teleop

167.4 61%

Endgame

59.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.74 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score623.9pts

Blue projected score269.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 354.5
Score range: 221–672
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 813 vs event baseline 264.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

769.1Season APEX359.6

122.3Auto47.5

368Teleop167.4

120.2Endgame59

71Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	145	23
teleop	344	146
endgame	53	47
foul	45	10
total	587	226

Result

Final score

587 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 pts