Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

368.18 – 344.44

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

533 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 112.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.4 ±8.4

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 135.01Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 99.67Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 133.5Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 622.3 ±9.3

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 115.82Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 135.69Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 92.93Rank 35Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3847, 6377, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.2 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3847, 6377, 118

Auto

77.2 21%

Teleop

203.1 56%

Endgame

79.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1296, 2582, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.4 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1296, 2582, 8576

Auto

62.9 19%

Teleop

217.3 65%

Endgame

55.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score368.2pts

Blue projected score344.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.7
Score range: 294–418
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 817 vs event baseline 278.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593.4Season APEX622.3

77.2Auto62.9

203.1Teleop217.3

79.6Endgame55.9

56Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	53
teleop	306	135
endgame	105	96
foul	0	0
total	533	284

Result

Final score

533 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 112.6 pts