Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

567.03 – 444.72

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

261 – 533

Prediction missed · off by 197.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 758.6 ±8.7

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 300.86Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 16.74Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 249.43Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 688.2 ±9.3

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 48.69Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 159.41Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 236.62Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9128, 127, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

567 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9128, 127, 10340

Auto

122.3 22%

Teleop

328.1 60%

Endgame

97.6 18%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4639, 2881, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

444.7 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4639, 2881, 8044

Auto

92.2 21%

Teleop

243.7 56%

Endgame

100.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.43 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score567pts

Blue projected score444.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.3
Score range: 395–617
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 794 vs event baseline 277.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

758.6Season APEX688.2

122.3Auto92.2

328.1Teleop243.7

97.6Endgame100.2

79Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	117
teleop	179	276
endgame	0	125
foul	0	15
total	261	533

Result

Final score

261 – 533

Prediction missed · off by 197.2 pts