Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.13 – 192.58

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 305

Prediction correct · off by 103.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 86.1 ±8.5

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 69.29Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 16.41Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 39.43Rank 37Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 568.2 ±8.4

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 45.29Rank 36Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 78Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 69.29Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5503, 8370, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5503, 8370, NaN

Auto

22.1 21%

Teleop

50.8 47%

Endgame

34.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7691, 118, 1296

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.6 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7691, 118, 1296

Auto

15.8 9%

Teleop

114.0 62%

Endgame

55.5 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.39 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score125.1pts

Blue projected score192.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.5
Score range: 76–242
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 270.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

86.1Season APEX568.2

22.1Auto15.8

50.8Teleop114

34.9Endgame55.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	56
teleop	7	194
endgame	7	55
foul	0	0
total	31	305

Result

Final score

31 – 305

Prediction correct · off by 103.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree